Been out of writing commission for a while as that heat wave swept through the North East. My computer happens to reside in a nonairconditioned room. This led me to stay far far away, but did not stop me from watching movies.
Two days ago I was invited to my cousin's house to watch a movie with the extended fam. The movie of choice happened to be a documentary called "Collapse". It was essentially an interview w/ Michael Rupert + Pictures. We watched as a family then discussed after. There were many points in the movie that really caught my attention. I was particularly fascinated by the concept of "Peak Oil". It wasn't that the idea was new to me, nor that the surrounding issues were new, but how severe his predictions were that caught my attention.
Given the title of the film it seems fairly obvious what his dire prediction was. Full out global collapse was the topic of the evening. His explanation being that oil is everything. Plastics, fertilizers, tires, paints, fuels, resins, and a whole host of other things originate from crude. Our roads are essentially made of crude. I mean what doesn't have oil in it at this point. If we are what we eat, and the fertilizer is derived from oil, then the plants are oil and whether we eat the plant or what eats the plant by extension we are oil. So what happens if the oil starts to run out, when everything from food to transportation, to storage, to medicine, to just about every damn thing is dependent on oil? Well his conclusion is collapse, and collapse before it runs out.
In a capitalistic system price is based on supply and demand. If the demand remains the same or grows as the supply diminishes the price goes up. So logically speaking the price of oil should go up. But, if the price goes up too high for people or organizations to buy then the demand drops, and prices come back down. One would figure if production is falling, the prices should fluctuate rather wildly in accordance with the shifts of demand. This concept in the movie was called the rocky Plateau. He showed charts suggesting that this was already happening, all of us who drive experience this as happening, so does this mean peak oil has already happened. His argument is that since oil prices have begun to fluctuate in this wild manner, it suggests that peak oil has happened. His other piece of evidence was that global production of oil decreased 9% between 2008 and 2009. That's a lot of missing oil and could cause some serious competition for the oil that's left.
But, ya back to the point, if peak oil has happened or is going to happen shortly, and global demand or need for oil continues to grow what then? Its not just the fuel issue, its the many fold miracle drug of the modern age. We live in a society built of oil, with oil inside and out of it and us. So if we run out, and can no longer fertilize our crops in fields that no not the natural order of crop rotation or compost what then? Or, lets say we have enough to fertilize but not transport then what good is having the food anyways? It seems that we need to solve this alternative energy thing in quick order or we don't have food or many other things for that matter.
But to develop these new technologies we'll need fossil fuels right? To melt the metals to forge the turbines, to link up the new and refurbished grid. Our current grid loses too much energy due to lack of repair to make alternative energies worth while now anyway. So what are we to do?
Some say the world's largest oil field is in decline, and may be drying up soon. Here is a little bit of that conversation.
(If you get the chance watch Collapse by the way its thought provoking)
Saudi Arabia’s promise to increase production to meet US and world economic needs was the hot topic. Much discussion and hard data was devoted to the fact that Ghawar, the largest field in the world, along with all of Saudi Arabia’s other large fields, was old and tired. In recent years both water injection and so-called "bottle-brush" drilling have been employed to maintain production and both of these techniques tend to accelerate decline and damage the reservoirs. They are desperate measures.
With bottle brush drilling, a shaft is drilled horizontally over long distances with a number of brush-like openings. As water is forced under pressure into the reservoir, the oil is forced upwards toward the well heads and extraction is thereby increased. However, when the water table hits the horizontal shaft, often without warning, the whole field is virtually dead and production immediately drops off to almost nothing. This comes as surprise in most cases. As several at the conference noted, this is exactly what had already happened in Oman, Syria and Yemen.
As William Kennedy, a UK observer at the conference noted afterwards, "For the record, Ghawar’s ultimate recoverable reserves in 1975 were estimated at 60 billion barrels – by Exxon, Mobil, Texaco and Chevron. It had produced 55 billion barrels up to the end of 2003 and is still producing at 1.8 billion per annum. That shows you how close it might be to the end. When Ghawar dies, the world is officially in decline."
No one, not even from the major oil companies or the economic camp rose to defend Saudi Arabia’s claim that it could increase production rapidly. The BBC’s Adam Porter nailed the International Energy Agency’s chief economist Faith Birol over his confident assertion that there was still plenty of oil.
If these things are happening, and oil is going away is collapse imminent? What can be done? What pace must it be done at? Why isn't the world taking action quickly? Are the peak oil people crazy?
Well i don't know because I'm not a geologist nor do I have access to information concerning the amounts of oil left in the ground. But, I am concerned that it may be running out! Even though it may be good for the environment, we do not have anything close to a replacement for oil yet, and if we start having serious shortages well that would suck a lot.
Thank you and good night.